̰
    : ֹ
ǻ : ܾĿ
: 2019 05

å Ұ


⼳, ÿ !
Ʈ ݼ ֹ , ѱ ٷ б


⼳ ֱ ѱ ѷ 濡 ֹ ܰ ع Ƴ å̴. ڴ TBS 塯, KBS ְ濵 , MBC 100 С  ⿬ϸ dz ͸ Ȱ īο м ûڵ ȣ , ְ Ʈ ݼμ ڸűؿԴ.


״ å ѱ ֹ ϴ ҵֵ 塯, ӱ λ ҵ ̻ ϰ , ݺ ̸ ȭؾ Ѵٰ Ѵ. Ҿȡ ġ Ϳ ƴ϶, ü ⡯ мϰ, ׿ ع ϴ ؾ Ѵٴ ̴. ڿ , α ȭ, ر ѱ Ȱ ִ Ⱥ, б ߽ ۷ι ȯ ȭ 4 , å ֹ Ư źź ̷а ִ.


ֹ
DZб а ϰ ̱ ƴб п ڻ ޾Ҵ. ȸ ȸ, Ͽ , б ε鷹б , MBC ڹ, αȸ , ڸƱ۷κ ̻ Ͽ. DZб а ϸ л ġ ִ.


2010 Ӻ긮 θ(IBC)κ 100 (Top 100 Professionals) ʰ ÿ 100 (Top 100 Educators), 21 Ź 2000(2000 Outstanding Intellectuals of the 21st Century) Ǿ. 2017 (Marquis Whos Who)κ 2017 2018 λ(2018 Albert Nelson Marquis Lifetime Achievement Award) Ͽ.


<Ѱܷ21> ̰, <Ź>  Į ϴ ü ö мϴ ϰ ִ. TBS 塯, KBS ְ濵  MBC, YTN, ѱTV, ϰTV, SBS CNBC ۿ ⿬ ̴.


åδ ? ü !, ȭ, ϱ?, Żȭ ý۵ ر ׸ 뺯ȯ, С, Żȭ ô ǡ, ũ(Again Shock) , Բ åδ ѱȸ , 2018 ̷ ϴ ̷, ѱ, ̷, ȸ -̷а 衷 ִ.



Prologue | 츮 ູ ?


츮 ִ°? _ ڷ д ѱ Ʈ üũ
1_ ǵƿ ӡ ȭ
ҵȭ, ȭ, ڼ о δ |б⡯͡ ϴ ļ | ӱ ƴ | ڿ ⿡ ? | ӱ λ ִ¡?| Ư ѱ ƴϴ | 2018 ִ | ҵֵ , ȭؾ Ѵ


2_ ѱ ´ڶ߸ ô
ѱ , ұ ȭ | ѱ ȭ Ļߴ | 3ܰ ȭϴ | ҵֵ , ⿡ ߸°? | ڱ å Ȱ, °


II> , ٴ _ ۷ι ѱ Ȱ ã
1_ ̱ε鵵 𸣴 ̱
ذ ʾҴ | ̱ ̷, | ̱ б £ ¸ ִ°? | ū Ⱑ ִ


2_ Ϻ ȭ, Ұɿ
Ϻ Ȳ ٺ |ȭ бǡ ϴ ƺͽ | Ϻ ű翡 Ұϴ


3_ Ῡ , ȭ
ȭ ͡ ̵ | ΰ? | 귺Ʈ


4_ ä ߵ ߱
: | ä ߵ ߱ | ǡ߱ ȯ


III> 4 ȭ 䱸Ѵ _ AI, ÷, ׸ ڸ
1_ 4 , ںǿ
Ұϴ | ο ̴


2_
¡۽Ÿ | 4 , 忡 ðܼ ȴ


IV> 츮 _ѱġ̷ °踦 û
1_ȭ ¡ ȭ
, | , ȸ ڻȭ ʿϴ | ε ȭ | ѱ ȭ, | ü, ġ ʿϴ


2_ѱ̷ °踦
Żȭ, ׸ з ȭ |ѱ , ÷ , | ȣ ڳ ȣ 콺 | ʿ ȸ ŵ


Epilogue | 츮 , 츮


 

̰


츮 ִ°? _ ڷ д ѱ Ʈ üũ

ѱ ̽ ϰ å غ. ù°, ѱ ⡯ΰ? Ϻ ߽ ڱ 縦 ⡯  Ѵ. ̴  , Ϻη ׷ ִ. Ⱑ ݸ ص ⡯ , 2б ̳ʽ ϴ Ȳ ħü ǥ ڿ Ѵ. ȯ ȭǴ Ȳ ħü ǥϰ Ѵ. ׷ٸ 츮 Ȳ  ƾ ϴ°?


к ڸ ħü Ȳ 츮 ü ȣ Ȳ ü 迡 ߸ ź Ѵ. Ư ߻ ҵ и Ȳ ִ. 40% 2018 4б ҵ 2016 4б⺸ ϶ߴ. ̷ ߻ ҵ ҵ ȭ ⺻ ȭ Ե ̴. ֱ 65 ̻ ڸ ôϾ ڸ å ȿ ϴ ݸ 40븦 ٽ 뵿 ڸ Ұ ǰ Ȳ ȭǰ ֱ ̴.


Ȳ ڸ ϸ鼭 Ҵ ߻ϴ Ȳ̴. Ȳ δ ޱȣ Ȱ ̰, ñδ ؾ ̴.


ѱȸ ġ ġ ؿ ϰ ִ. ߻ ȭǴ ȭ ȭǸ鼭 ġ µ 뺯ϸ å ̰ ¡ġ ȭ ϻȭǰ ִ ̴. 2016 ر ġ޾Ҵ ġ ȮǼ ؼҿ ȣ 2017⿡ ݵ ݸ ѷ Ϲ ѹݵ ߹ ɼ ְ ߱ ̴. ׷ âø Ű 谡 Ϲ 踦 ȭŰ确 ƴ϶ ۿߴ. ݸ鿡 2018 ǥ ׸ ʾҰ ̸ Ρ ϰ ӡ ̴.


ǵƿ ӡ ȭ

2018 5 DZ ߴ. ϰ 2017 2 Ը 10 1.0%( 2.8%) 1б ̱ OECD 0.5%( 2.6%) ұ⿡ ݿ ʾҴ. ׷ 2019 5 1б û 赿簡 ǥǰ ҵй谡 ũ ȭ Ÿ. 2б 0.6%( 2.8%) ǥ е ̱ ϸ Ҹ Ƴ´. Դٱ 10 IMF 2019 ġ ʺ ߸鼭 ⡯ Ȥ ߽ ȮDZ⿡ ̸.

ҵȭ, ȭ, ڼ о δ

2018 5 23 û 赿翴. ĥ 29 ûʹ뿡 ҵ浿ȸǸ ϸ硰ֱ 1б ҵ浿 20%ҵ ҵй ȭ 츮 ſ졮¡̴. ҵ ҵ ȭ ǥ ҵֵ ӱ ٷ ӱ ȭ 2020 ӱ 1 ޼ ߸ å ̶ Ƴ ߴ.


2010 α翡 60 ̻ ֿ 1 2015 α縦 ǥ ٲ ȭ ʿϰ, Ƶ 50% ҵ پ . ׷ ҵ Ϻ ߻ ҵ ⺻ ҵֵ ̳ ӱ ް λ  Ե ƴϾ. ̹ 2016 Ǿ ̴. 2018 3бʹ ҵ Ұ 40% ҵǾ. ߻ ȮǾ ҵ Ұ Ϻ DZ ̴.


Ư ѱ ƴϴ

2018 10 IMF ġ ϸ, 츮 2018 3.0% 2.8%, 2019 2.9% 2.6% ǥߴ. ׷ <Ϻ> ٷȴٴ ̡ѱ ȭ ˿ ̶ Ȯǰ ִ. ϸ确 ߴ. ׷ IMF ̰ŴϿ 2018 ġ 2.8% ũ ȭǾٰ ⿡ ǥ. 츮 ̸ 2012 ̷ ǻ 2% ӵǾ Ա ̴.


ΰ ̷ 2017 3.1%, 2018 ݱ 2.8% ϶ߴٰ ؼ ۽ ߴٰ ϴ ǿ ȣϴ ´. ̸, ڱ ο ϸ ο ϶ ̹ Ϳ Ұϴ. 츮 ü  ٺ ȭ Ŀ ϶ Ұ ̱ ̴.


̱ ѱ ƳĴ ƴϴ. 츮 Ȯ Ҵ ̱ 2018 (2.9%) ǰ ƴϴ. , ʿѡ ξ ̱ ̴.


ְ 2019 2 Ǿ IMF ǥ Ǯ̵Ǿ. IMF Ǵ ǥ ¡ѱ ߴܱ dz ° ־ ּ 9 ̻ Ը ߰ Ȯ å Ҿ ȭ å ȭ̾ Ѵ. ̾. dz̶ ܾ IMF ѱ ̷ ߴٴ 縦 Ƴ°, IMF Ʈ츶 ִ ε ũ Ǿ.


׷ ְ ̴. տ ߵ ѱ ʹ Ÿ ִ. IMF ѡdz ҿ ȭ ǹϴ ̾. п ǥѡdz¹ٶ(headwinds) Ȯ ǹ̸ Ƴ Ѵ.


IMF Ǵ ǥ IMF 4 9 ǥ 2019 ġ ȮεǾ. IMF 2019 ġ ̱ 0.2% Ʈ 2.3% ǥ ݸ, 츮 ġ 10 ǥ 2.6% ״ ߴ. е ޸ ѱ ̱ ̴. (?) ŷϴ 츮 󸶳 ְϴ 巯. 1.5% ̾ ؿ 1.1% Ʈ 0.8% ǰ ִ. 0.8% 1.0% Ǵ Ϻ  츮 Ÿ ִ.


ѱ ´ڶ߸ ô

ѱ ǥϱ ƴ. ׷ ȭ ֵ ٸ ǥ ȭ. ȭ ª Ⱓ ΰġ ΰġ ȯϴ . ׷ (ս) ȸ л()ߴ ݸ ̵ Ը ߵǾ. ȭ å , å ġ ׸ ФҰ յ޸ ߴ.


1071 10 25Ͽ ߱ UN ϴ ƽþ Ⱥ ȯ ޺ߴ. ̸ ̷ 1971 12 6 ¸ ߴµ, Ⱥ ֿ켱 Ǹ ̴. Ȳ δ ڿ п ־. ̸ м ǥ̡-- ̴. Ѹ ̾, ̰ ȭ ̴.


׷ 1987⡮ 츮 ȸ ߽ȭΡ ȭ, 30 ѵ ϼ ϱ? װ ٷ ѱ ȸ ߽ ü Ǿ̱ ̴. (迵 ) 1992⿡ ڸ پ Żȭ ÿ Ǿ. ߽ ü 깰 Ұý۰ ð ӱ ٷ ̿ ؿ ΰġ ѱ .


׷ (Ī ) ȡѱ ȭ ( ý) ϸ鼭 п Ұ ݼ(Ģ ) ʰ ְ, ٸ (Ī )¡ѱ ȭ 𵨡 ֻΡп Ұ , ̸׸ ȭ ߱ѱ ȭ 𵨡 ѡ 𵨡(̷ ) ؿԴ. ¡̷ ϸ ǡп- ⡯зӿ ָ ȭ ҰһӴ, ޱ Ȳ ۿ ٴ ̴. ̰ ̴ּ.


ѱ , ұ ȭ

* ڸ ȭ

״Ρڸ ´١ ǹ̸ ´. ü ο غ Ȳ ۵ Żȭ ڸ ۿ . ڸ ϶ Ҿ ߰ ӱ ڸ پ ټ ӱݰ Ҽ ӱ ڸ ȭǴ¡ڸ ȭ װ̴.


Ư ڸ ҵ κ ָؾ Ѵ. 10 ̻ ü ߿ 뵿ڰ ϴ 1987 38% , 2017⿡ 25% 30 ̿ 13% Ʈ ߴ. Zڿ ַ ̶ ߿ ̴.


ο ͻ ƴ϶ ߱ Ĺ ڵ ߰  ް ִ. ߼ұ̳ ڿ ϴ ϸ °踦 ıŰ ִ. ̸ 塯 ϰ, ڱ ȭ ֿ ɾٴ ȭ Ұ ȭǾ ̴.


ڸ ҿ Ҿ 1993 ڸ ȭ, ӱ ؿ ڸ ü Ұ Ǿ. ҵ ȭ ڸ ȭ ٸ ǥ ̴. ȯ ҵй ȭ ȭ ̴. ڸ ȭ ȭ ޼ 鿡 Ϲ Ÿ . Ư IT ڵȭ ȭ ܼ ݺ (routine tasks) üϰ ֱ ̴.



, ٴ _ ۷ι ѱ Ȱ ã

̱ε鵵 𸣴 ̱

̱ ű,

10 ̱ Ȳ Ȯϰ ʿ䰡 մ. 켱 ȸ ǥ . 2008 9 15 ̱ 귯 Ļϸ鼭 ̱ 3б ̳ʽ ϸ ħü . 2009 3б ( ) ÷(+) ȯ 2017 2.2%. ̴ (1985~2006) 3.3% 1.1% Ʈ ̴. 2018 2.9% 2015 2.9% Ҿ ְ ̴. ̱ 2018 ̻ ̶ 򰡰 ̴.


̱ Ǿ 2018 9 10 1953 3.7% ϶ߴ. Ѷ 10% ġھҴ Ǿ ȸǾ Ը ϴٴ ش. 5,000 ޷ ڱ ü׵ 2018 12 1.6 ޷ ϰ ִ.


߿ ´. ̱ Ÿ ̽-Ƿ(Case-Shiller) (2000 =100) ְ 2006 7 184.6 2012 2 134 ϶ߴٰ 2018 8 205.7 ġھҴ. 2018 3б 64.4% ټ ȸǾ ڿ ð ξ ۵Ǿ 1995 ؿ Ұϴ.


ȭ ȭ å ͵ ִ. ݸ ʰغݿ ߴ. Ⱑ ߹ ݸ α 0~0.25%. ݸ 0% ̰ 0.25% ؿ ġϴ ()غ ʰϴ¡ʰغݡ ϴ ݸ. ̷ κ ݸ ڱ 翹ġ 0.25% ڸ ִ ǹѴ. ں ٴ Ȯν ̴.


ó ȭ å ʿ 質 ұ å ƴ϶ ö ڱ ȸ ̾. ڻ ǰ ̴. 2018 (ݸ λ) ӵ 鼭 ׵ ش ȭ ڻ ǰ ر Ű ִ , ְ ε Ҿ ̴. ׸ ټ ε鿡 ̴.


Ϻ ȭ, Ұɿ

Ϻ Ȳ ٺ

Ϻ Ȳ 1990 ڻ ǰ ر ã´. 225 1989 38,916 Ʈ ϶ϱ 2011 8,500 Ʈ ߶ߴ. ׸ Ϻ 6 (2000=100) 1991 285.3 2010 70.9 ߶ߴ. Ϻ ڻ 1980 ̷ ϶ߴ. ̸ ڻ ϶ϰ ڻ꿡 ä ϴ ϸ鼭, ä ȯ ϴٰ ߻ϴ ħü Ρǥ ħü ˿ ̴.


൵ Ϳ(Non-Performing Loans, NPL) ս óϱ պ  ȴ. Ϻ νä ó ս Ը 2007 9 99 ߴµ սǾ Ը 98 Ը 鿡 ϱ ߴ. ׷ Ը 2 ڻ ǰ ر 30 Ȳ ӵȴٴ ʴ´.


Ϻ Ȳ 1970κ ִ. Ϻ 1945~1960Ⱓ 9.4% 1951~1955Ⱓ 10.9%, 1956~1960Ⱓ 8.7% 1961~1965Ⱓ 9.7%, 1966~1970Ⱓ 12.2% ̾ Ǿ. ׷ ̷ 1970 ߴܵȴ. 1972~1981Ⱓ 4.3%, 1982~1991Ⱓ 4.0% ޶Ѵ.


1970뿡 ߻ߴ°? Ϻ ̱ ߴ Żȭ DZ ߴ. 1974 ϶ϱ , Ը 1979 ٽ ϱ 1992 پ ߴ. ó Ϻ ⸦ ߴ 1970, 1980뿡 ʿ伺 λ ̾. Ϻ Żȭ ۵Ǵ 1970 , ȭý ȭ ں ȯ ޺ϸ鼭 Ϻ ȯ ߴٴ ̴. ؿ ں ö ӿ --ణ ¿ ̸١Ʈũ ý Żȭ Ҿ ں з ϰ ȯ ԵǸ鼭 տ ߴ.


Ϻ δ ° 籸̶ ó溸ٴ ξ翡 ߾. δ ξ 130 Ѵ Ը ߴ. ׷ ⿡ ξ ߴ. ϳ ξå ߾ Ϻ(BOJ) ȭ ȭ, Ǯ⿴. ׷ ȭ Ⱓ ߿ 15% ϶ ΰ ι Ե ߴ.


1990 Ȳ ް Ϻ δ ڴʰ Żȭ ϱ ° 籸 Ѵ. 20 3 ׷ Ǿ. ݵü, LCD ̷, 絵 հ Ҿ ̷. ׷ â ó п. 1999~2001 ̿ װ Ը ׸ ü ־ â -14.3%, -14.0%, -26.9% ߴ.


ٸ â . 2004~2012 Ϻ ݼ ڻ GDP 44% 15~27% G6 е ġ ϴµ, ̴ Ϻ ȸ  ϰ ش.



4 ȭ 䱸Ѵ _ AI, ÷, ׸ ڸ

4 , ںǿ

ο ̴

ڰ ξ ŷ ϱ⿡ ϳǡ °(÷) ȭϰ ִ. ° Ը ϸ ڿ Ϻ ϰ, ϳ ÷ ڴ پ ʿ並 ų ֱ⿡ Ŀ ƴ϶, ڰ ÷ μƼ긦 ҽŴν ָ, ð ġ κ ϴ ϴ. ó 3 ¡ IT Ŵν ° ÷ ɼ ־, ÷ ¿ ־.


ű(ICT) ߴް Ҿ ÷ Ȯ ô ̡ ν 2010 AI ̲. AI ߴ ȭų ƴ϶ ο ϱ ̴. AI ߴ ֱ 5G Ҿ ̴ ͵ Ʈȭ ϰ ְ, IoT Ѿ 繰 ΰȭ(AIoT)Ű ִ.


۷ι ȭ, ڵ ̵ Ʈȭϴ¡Ʈ Ƽ ַ 񽺡 ָϴ ̴. ǥ 찡 Ʈ ڵ شϴ ĿƼƮ ī ̴. ڵ Ʈī Ƿ Ǿ߸ Ѵ. ׷߸ ڵ ͳݵ ϰ õ ֱ ̴. ڵ  ʿϱ ǽð ִ 5G ̴. ̶ AI ߴϷ ο ̱⿡ ڵ ȥڼ ϴ ͺ ϴ Ȯ ϴ. Դٰ ʿ ̿ ִ ̶ ϴ ȿ̴. 뵵ø ߽ ̵ ϼ ް پ . ó ǰ ŷ Ӹ ƴ϶ ͸ Ȱ ο ġ â ȸ ش.


* * *


ȫ ۱ڷκ ΰ Ϻθ , ۱ǹ Ͽ ۱ ΰ , ܺ , DZǰ ۱ ۱ڿ ˷帳ϴ.