The Post-PC Era is Emerging Perhaps no other invention revolutionized the world as profoundly as the personal computer. From the clunky, bug-ridden devices that were assembled from mail-order parts by a small number of geeks in garages in the 1970s ? to the sleek machines of today, the PC has become a vital tool in the work and personal lives of nearly every American.
They have become so ubiquitous that, in January 2003, more than half a billion personal computers were in use around the globe. By the end of the year, another 134 million PCs were added, according to International Data Corporation estimates.
PCs were instrumental in driving the huge gains in productivity that U.S. businesses posted over the past 10 years. After growing at a sluggish 1.4 percent annual rate from 1973 through 1994, U.S. labor productivity soared as PCs saturated the workplace. From 1994 through 2003, productivity leaped by an average of more than 4 percent per year.
The widespread use of PCs made possible the explosion of the Internet, e-mail, and e-commerce. They also reshaped the structure of society and the corporation by enabling knowledge workers to telecommute to their workplaces. And they shifted the balance of power between communist governments and the masses, and between corporations and consumers, by making all of the world’s information available to anyone, anywhere, at any time.
But now, advances in technology, including miniaturization and wireless, are threatening to make the desktop PC itself obsolete. Consequently, it now appears that we are entering a new “post-PC era.”
Today, the average American’s “high-tech tool kit” includes many electronic devices in addition to the personal computer. These devices include a portable notebook computer, a personal digital assistant, a cellular phone, and perhaps an MP3 audio player for entertainment.
Looking ahead, it’s just a matter of time until these other info-tech devices completely eclipse the PC in the amount of computing and communications they handle.
Eight irresistible forces in technology, society, and in business have combined to propel the popularity of non-PC-based information processing devices and set the stage for the post-PC era:
Force #1.
Significant advances
in microchip design.
These advances include placing more functions on smaller-sized chips, enabled by improvements in manufacturing techniques and chip materials. The latest generations of chips are commonly referred to as “systems-on-a-chip,” because they pack all the logic and processing power needed for an entire application to operate on a single microchip.
Force #2.
The introduction of smaller and more powerful consumer electronics devices designed around this new generation of system-on-a-chip technology. In each of the past four years, Motorola and Nokia have introduced smaller cell phones with greater functionality. Personal digital assistants have also grown increasingly slimmer, yet more powerful. Integrated electronic products such as the combined PDA and cell phone occupy less space than their formerly stand-alone devices. And that’s just the beginning. Microsoft is developing Smart Personal Object Technology ? SPOT for short ? that can retrieve information from the Internet and broadcast it over a radio frequency to other very small devices. SPOT development team members even envision refrigerator magnets that display information pulled from the Web.
Force #3.
The overwhelming consumer migration from wired to wireless telecommunications.
The average American is no longer tied to the nearest phone jack. The global wireless telephone market currently has more than 1 billion users and is growing at 20 percent annually. As a result, for the first time, wireless spending by the average American household surpassed traditional phone spending at the end of 2003. According to a study by Ernst & Young, almost half of American consumers would like to go completely wireless.
Force #4.
The communications demands of an increasingly mobile, telecommuting workforce.
By 2006, industry analyst IDC predicts that roughly two-thirds of America’s part-time and full-time workers will be mobile workers. And the Yankee Group, a research and consulting firm, reports that 56 million American households now have a digital office in the home for telecommuters and home-based businesses. This is an increase of 14 million digital home offices since one year earlier. According to a report in Red Herring,2 households with telecommuters are twice as likely to buy notebook PCs, Wi-Fi systems, PDAs, and fax machines than other U.S. households. Telecommuters save overhead costs for their employers, while enjoying the freedom to work from home ? or, increasingly, from just about anywhere.
Force #5.
Mobile telecommunications has untethered the PC itself.
The dominant technology that underlies this development is Wi-Fi, the wireless connection to the Internet. Wireless access is ? or soon will be ? available at most hotels, airports, train stations, and ports. People can already use wireless “hot spots” at businesses such as Starbucks, Burger King, and Barnes & Noble. At least 1 million Americans rely on these hot spots to surf the Web, read and send e-mail, shop on-line, and so on. Research firm Gartner Dataquest estimates that there will be 130,000 wireless hot spots worldwide by the end of 2004.
But so far, an average Wi-Fi hot spot can only cover a radius of 300 feet. Already companies are addressing this issue. The firm IntelliNet recently announced a solution that enables users to roam from Wi-Fi wireless connections to cellular connections seamlessly and without data interruption. Such technology will soon enable true connections on the move.
There are already 800 Wi-Fi certified products on the market, including the latest generation of notebook and tablet computers. PDAs and cell phones will quickly follow in 2004. Market researchers project annual sales of one million Internet-ready wireless devices in 2004.
Force #6.
The growing domestication of information technology.
IT has quickly migrated ? from automating the office, to automating a growing number of household activities. These activities include home security, education, entertainment, socializing, shopping, heating, and lighting. For example, Intel recently announced that it is establishing a $200 million investment fund to advance start-up companies that will create the “digital home.”
Force #7.
The digitalization of photography, video, audio, and telephone communications.
These different media types are now represented very accurately as a series of zeros and ones. As a result, data is readily transported without distortion across boundaries. For example, parents can record their child’s first steps in Chicago with their digital video recorder, edit the segment on a PC, and burn it onto a DVD for their own parents in Florida.
Force #8.
A convergence of applications.
While slim notebook computers are commonly found in the average professional’s briefcase, mobile computing currently means traveling around with a portable PC, PDA, cellular phone, and other devices. Advanced Micro Devices is developing a single chip that contains several microprocessors to enable better multi-tasking and faster performance in electronic devices. Expect the demise of most single-purpose devices, such as the traditional desktop computer and the stand-alone cell phone. Anticipate that the PC will become merely one device in the integrated home network.
The “post-PC Era” does not mean the end of the PC, but rather the end of information technology research and marketing driven primarily by the PC. The intersections of the eight forces we’ve discussed will lead to fundamental changes in IT and how it is used. Looking ahead, we offer three forecasts for your consideration:
For the foreseeable future, PCs will continue to be low-margin commodities. As manufacturers take advantage of cheap off-the-shelf technology, they will discover that the only ways to build a competitive advantage will be through proprietary or free software, superior tech support, and effective marketing.
Over the next five years, the PC will progressively disappear from the consumer’s consciousness. Its functions will be increasingly embedded in the PDA, the smart tablet, the TV, or even the refrigerator. The PC will become the ubiquitous home information server that will help other devices operate seamlessly.
People will interact increasingly with special-purpose peripherals. Every peripheral will become part of an intelligentpersonal web. They will share information with each other, as well as a central information hub.
References List :
1. Taipei Times, March 5, 2003, "No Post-PC Era in Sight, U.S. Expert Says," by Bill Heaney. ⓒ Copyright 2003 by The Taipei Times. All rights reserved.2. Red Herring Online, January 15, 2004, "Going Mobile." ⓒ Copyright 2004 by Red Herring, Inc. All rights reserved.
