The God-Gulf As we get further into the 21st century, we’re approaching a sociological and political “tipping point” similar to the one that we encountered in the mid-1960s.
Let’s consider the parallels:
The oldest members of the enormous Millennial generation are coming of age in 2004, just as the oldest members of the Baby Boom generation were coming of age in 1964.
In the preceding election cycle, the presidency went to the party holding both houses of Congress by the narrowest of margins, based on the disputed results in a single state. In 1960, it was Illinois; in 2000, it was Florida.
The party controlling Congress had held control for 10 years. The Democrats regained control in 1954, while the Republicans regained control in 1994.
The economy is entering a new boom after a mild recession. John F. Kennedy’s tax cuts stimulated the economy in the early 1960s in much the same way as those of George W. Bush are doing today.
The country has troops engaged in combat overseas. Vietnam and the War on Terror are clearly different, but they also have certain parallels.
Most importantly, the nation faces a moral divide that’s energizing many, even as others are oblivious to it. In 1964, that divide was Civil Rights; in 2004 that divide is defined by faith and family values.
As hard as it may be for many Americans to believe, removing the Ten Commandments from public display and elevating gay unions to the level of marriage are at least as motivating for conservatives as George Wallace standing in the schoolhouse door or the Selma civil rights march was for liberals.
In fact, the most perceptive political analysts are now beginning to recognize faith as the crucial “fault-line” of modern American politics. And the way it impacts the electorate is already dramatically reshaping party affiliations and electoral maps. The full magnitude of this seismic shift is likely to be felt for the first time in the 2004 election cycle, even though it’s been building for nearly four decades.
The noted liberal columnist Nicholas D. Kristof observed in the November 12, 2003 issue of The New York Times that, “…liberals are becoming more secular at a time when America is becoming increasingly religious… Americans, for example, are significantly more likely now than in 1987 to say they ‘completely agree’ that ‘prayer is an important part of my daily life’ and that ‘we all will be called before God on Judgment Day to answer for our sins.’”
He notes a recent report from the Pew Research Center, which revealed that white Catholics who attend Mass regularly used to be strongly Democrat-leaning, but now are more likely to be Republican. Similarly, white evangelicals, who were split equally between the two major parties only 15 years ago, are now twice as likely to be Republicans. And Kristof goes on to conclude that since Americans are three times as likely to believe in the virgin birth of Jesus as they are in evolution, liberal derision for President Bush’s religious beliefs risk marginalizing the left.
Kristof, like the Trends editors, is speaking in terms of “perceptions” rather than objective realities. Democrats have not set themselves up explicitly as the “anti-God party.” In fact the last president who was nearly as openly religious as George W. Bush was Jimmy Carter, a Democrat. But the reality is that the Democrats have done little to prevent this anti-God perception of them. And if they are to prevent a cataclysm from hitting them, they will have to move fast.
Once again this recalls parallels to 1964: Despite arm-twisting by President Johnson, the Voting Rights Act and the 1964 Civil Rights act were both passed with support from a much larger percentage of Republicans in the House and Senate than of Democrats. Yet, because of skillful handling by Johnson and a poorly timed “no” vote by the Republican’s 1964 nominee Senator Barry Goldwater based on constitutional issues rather than race, the Democrats were able to seize the mantle of Civil Rights and begin building on it. This tipped the scale and caused a massive Democrat landslide at all levels of government in the 1964 elections.
In much the same way, it’s not unrealistic to imagine that GOP now stands for “God’s Own Party.” Building on this perception is the recently released book titled The Faith of George W. Bush by Stephen Mansfield. It makes anyone who is already a “born again Christian” want to support Bush and his agenda. And with this demographic already registered to vote more than the general population, the primary issue is whether they will turn out in disproportionate numbers. That’s where the Christian media comes in. That’s why those on the left who already worry about the 20 million Rush Limbaugh listeners, don’t even want to think about the nearly 50 million who listen to Christian radio.
What’s the upshot of all this for business? Just think back to 1964 and the intervening decades.
With filibuster-proof margins in the Senate and large margins in the House, Johnson began, in 1965, to push through the “Great Society” legislation that is still alive and well today. Now, for the first time since the mid-60’s, a President may be able to make equally sweeping, once-in-a- generation changes, beginning in 2005. Business managers, investors and professionals should begin to consider the implications of such pervasive change in the political tone.
Whether you are on the right or left politically, consider how each of the following seven major forecasts could impact your business, your career, and your life and start preparing for them.
First, after a net gain of five or more seats in the Senate, virtually all in conservative southern states, Bush will not need to concern himself with the possible defection of moderate Republicans in Rhode Island, Maine, Pennsylvania, or Minnesota. This will permit him to be far more unyielding in terms of dealing with tort reform. We forecast that a settlement more favorable to the industry than any recently proposed will be reached in the asbestos litigation legislation area by 2006. In that same timeframe, new, more rigorous standards will be put in place to reduce the number of class-action suits and prevent “venue shopping.” New limitations on medical malpractice awards will also be enacted, dramatically lowering the cost of malpractice insurance. While disastrous for trial lawyers and potentially negative for some classes of consumers, this will be a huge boon for businesses and their shareholders. Removing the litigation drag on the economy will boost economic growth and share prices.
Second, we forecast that by 2008 the top marginal rate for federal income tax on individuals will drop back to the pre-Clinton 28 percent rate. We also forecast that the Alternative Minimum Tax will be abolished. Furthermore, tax reductions already legislated but scheduled to expire between 2006 and 2010 will be made permanent. This will also represent a plus for economic growth and share prices
Third, the overhaul and reinvention of Medicare will continue and accelerate. The recently passed legislative provisions designed to introduce competitive marketplace forces into the Medicare system will be moved from 2010 to 2006 or 2007. Other provisions, such as medical savings accounts, will also become law on more than a trial basis. These efforts will have a dramatic favorable impact on the growth rate of health care costs.
Fourth, school voucher programs will become standard practice throughout the nation by 2008, assuming that trials launched in 2006 or 2007 are successful. Market forces will then intervene to improve school performance, while controlling costs. A major beneficiary of these programs will be schools with religious affiliations. A major victim will be teachers’ unions.
Fifth, assuming that the GOP still holds less than 60 seats in the Senate in 2005, we forecast that the majority leader will use the so-called “nuclear strategy” to clear the way for conservative judicial appointments. This involves revising the Senate rules with respect to the use of filibusters in judicial appointments. This procedure requires only a simple majority to overturn a rule that has required a 60-vote super majority culture vote. Since the President will no longer need to be concerned about keeping Democrats or moderate Republicans on board for these nominations, he can feel free to use this strategy. With justices O’Connor, Rehnquist, and Stevens unlikely to outlast a second Bush term, this strategy may be crucial if he is to keep his promise to appoint additional judges in the mold of Thomas and Scalia.
Sixth, a law preventing pastors from speaking about political issues on the pulpit has been in effect since Senator Lyndon Johnson slipped the provision into a 1954 tax law bill. We predict that this restriction will be overturned by passage of the House of Worship Free Speech Restoration Act. Just as The Great Society programs directly rewarded those who were most crucial to the democratic landslide, this change will directly reward those most responsible for any GOP landslide.
Seventh, regulatory relief will become a top priority. A major feature of the “Contract With America” that gave the Republicans control of Congress back in 1994 was the promise of rigorous re-examination of the regulatory burden. However, little has happened since for many reasons. However, we now expect to see a radical reengineering of regulatory processes, beginning in 2005. Agencies ranging from OSHA to EPA to BATF will be reexamined and forced to justify their procedures on a rigorous cost-benefit basis. While the benefits won’t appear overnight, we expect this to be the area with the greatest long-term favorable impact on business. And many businesspeople will certainly call that a miracle from God.
References List :1. The New York Times, November 12, 2003, "Hold the Vitriol," by Nicholas D. Kristof. ⓒ Copyright 2003 by New York Times Co. ? HQ. All rights reserved.2. To access the report "The 2004 Political Landscape ? Part 8: Religion in American Life," visit the Pew Research Center website at: People-press.org/reports/display.php3?PageID=1963. The Faith of George W. Bush by Stephen Mansfield is published by J.P. Tarcher. ⓒ Copyright 2003 by Stephen Mansfield. All rights reserved.
