As machines and software take over more and more of the work that people once performed, we will see profound changes in the labor market.
The Hyper-Human Economy Is Coming
As machines and software take over more and more of the work that people once performed, we will see profound changes in the labor market.
As futurist Richard W. Samson argues in his new book, Mind Over Technology, “Human mental processes are being systematically transferred into computers, microchips, networks, and mechanical devices of all types.”
Where will this lead? As always, history provides us with valuable insights into the future.
For example, during the Industrial Revolution, workers adapted to the shrinking demand for manual labor by developing the skills they needed to succeed in jobs based on “know-how.” Now, however, those same types of jobs are disappearing because of technologies that are taking the place of know-how.
For another illustration from the past, consider farming. At the beginning of the 20th century, two of every five American workers were involved in agriculture to provide the nation’s food. Now, due to automation, only one in every 50 American workers is needed to produce the food consumed by a much larger population.
We can follow the decline of factory work along a similar path. The percentage of people in manufacturing jobs has plunged to 17 percent of the non-farm workforce, compared to 38 percent in 1940, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. And if the trend continues, manufacturing will soon join farming in accounting for less than 2 percent of the workforce. When that happens, in theory, the service sector could encompass 98 percent of the non-farm labor force.
As Samson points out, as information technology automates white- and blue-collar functions alike, most of the remaining jobs are being transferred into all-electronic systems. In other words, know-how is being taken over by ever more-sophisticated tools.
If that’s the case, then what’s left for people to do? The answer: a new class of jobs involving hard-to-automate “hyper-human” skills that go beyond know-how.
We can divide today’s service sector workforce into two types: first, those requiring know-how skills; and second, those requiring hyper-human skills.
Service workers with know-how skills are likely to plummet to less than 2 percent of the workforce by the end of the century, but hyper-human service workers may zoom to over 90 percent.
Samson argues that, “We may be less than 5 percent into the Information Age in terms of the mental functions that may be usurped by electronic intelligence. Internet 2, now in development in research and academic organizations, is expected to offer data transfer speeds up to a thousand times faster than today’s commercial Internet. The future Internet could resemble a gigantic intellectual utility that can operate without human oversight. Expert systems ? already practical in fields such as oil exploration ? could soon begin rivaling college professors, career counselors, biotech researchers, investment advisers, and economists in the expertise they can deliver.”
The future is already emerging from research labs. “Self-aware computing” is being developed by IBM and DARPA. Complex electronic systems monitor their own performance, self-correct, and self-maintain, without human intervention. The impact on human workers could be moderate or very great. When nanotechnology becomes practical as a production and data tool, automation may accelerate at warp speed.
What does all this mean? Here are eight forecasts from the Trends editors, based on our assessment of the evidence presented in Samson’s book Mind Over Technology:
First, by 2100, look for know-how services to join agriculture and manufacturing in the less-than-2-percent-of-the-workforce club. That means that a relative handful of the U.S. non-farm workforce will be needed to accomplish today’s know-how functions in factories, offices, stores, professional suites, hospitals, research labs, and universities.
Second, in the new world of work, it’s no longer true that technologies that eliminate jobs always create new, better ones. While this may have been true until now, it isn’t the case any more, according to Samson. Just because new jobs are emerging, that doesn’t mean they’re better. From 1993 to 2003, there was a 26 percent growth in jobs that involve serving food and beverages. For an engineer who’s been downsized, working in Starbucks or Krispy Kreme doesn’t pay much better than being unemployed. Besides, those jobs may become automated, too. Customers are getting used to scanning their own groceries at supermarkets, and filling their own drink cups at fast-food restaurants.
However, we argue that just like every prior generation of technology, information technology will create new and better jobs for some people, while penalizing others. However, because of longer life spans and a faster pace of change, this trauma will overtake more people than ever before. Moreover, Samson himself offers the solution to the dilemma he’s identified: “Work itself needs to be redefined, and new forms of work need to be invented.”
But keep in mind that it’s simply impossible to anticipate what the new jobs are really going to be like in 30 years. Back in 1974, nobody knew that we’d need network analysts, Web page designers, or nanotech researchers. It’s just as unclear what future jobs will look like. However, it’s safe to say that more of the “left-brain” functionality will be embodied in software and computers, and that people’s jobs will involve more “right-brain” functions.
Third, as know-how gets easier to store and apply through networks and automatic systems, the winning strategy is to move up from know-how work to “hyper-human” or “meta-mental” work. This is the type of work that only humans can do. Computers are superior at jobs that involve calculations, routine logic, mass data storage and retrieval, remote sensing, structured decision making, and so on. People can’t outperform computers at these tasks. So we agree with Samson that much of the opportunity lies in doing what we can do better than machines can. Remember, we’re alive and electronic systems aren’t. Consider what aliveness involves: creativity and imagination, subjective decision making, hypothesizing, and social skills. Aliveness, in its best mode, also includes a vital overall ingredient: reflection or meta-consciousness. We’re not just conscious, but conscious of our consciousness.
Fourth, we’ll need to start tracking today’s service sector in two strands: the know-how service jobs, and the hyper-human service jobs. Know-how positions are rapidly being taken over by technology; in contrast, hyper-human jobs must always be done by people. We also need to track hyper-human forms of manual work that are performed with creativity and pleasure. Examples might include planting gardens in cities, specialized engineering, and creating sculptures and murals.
Fifth, corporations will begin redefining jobs and transitioning people from a know-how focus to a hyper-human focus. For example, they’ll add hyper-human functions to current job descriptions and provide training for employees who need to develop such skills. Customer service reps could expand their duties from merely responding to customer complaints; they could morph into “customer concierges” who would work on customer problems across every function in the organization until they’re solved. Also, as know-how is automated, it can be used to help people do hyper-human jobs. In departments like product development or sales and marketing, software that embodies mental models can help human workers think of new ideas. Studies show that employees who use a mental model to spark creativity can help their companies save millions of dollars and discover opportunities they might have missed.
Sixth, smart CEOs will proactively create new and better jobs. As a result, when old know-how jobs are lost to automation, they’ll avoid the backlash other companies will encounter from unions, professional associations, government regulators, disgruntled employees, and outside activists. Many new and existing positions will be changed to take advantage of hyper-human qualities that, until now, were used only by inventors, entrepreneurs, artists, authors, teachers, and others who do creative work and help others.
Seventh, governments and concerned citizens can be expected to adopt three strategies:
Concentrate on the hyper-human aspects of work while people are still in school. Whether they’re in grade school or pursuing an MBA, students should receive more training on how to use creativity, curiosity entrepreneurship, and flexible problem solving.
Build new “local communities.” These will balance globalization by putting a new emphasis on cohesive communities, in the United States and abroad. This will lead to more so-called “intercommunities” ? physical analogs of Internet nodes in which living, earning, learning, and culture co-exist and reinforce one another.
Use investment and philanthropy to revive small businesses that create jobs locally. The wealthy will be encouraged to invest a fraction of their wealth in small-business super-funds.
Eighth, within the next 20 years, the most ambitious people will move to work that is high on the hyper-human scale. They’ll gradually recognize that their job security and success in the future depends on developing skills in working creatively, focusing on goals, and interacting with other people. Within large organizations, the ability to think like an entrepreneur will be highly valued. And even more so than today, people who know how to innovate will be richly rewarded.
References List : 1. Mind Over Technology: Coming Out on Top as a Wired World Starts to Run on Automatic by Richard W. Samson is published by BookSurge Publishing. ⓒ Copyright 2004 by Richard W. Samson. All rights reserved.2. The Futurist, September/October 2004, "Succeeding in the Hyper-Human Economy," by Richard W. Samson. ⓒ Copyright 2004 by the World Future Society. All rights reserved.3. Mind Over Technology: Coming Out on Top as a Wired World Starts to Run on Automatic by Richard W. Samson is published by BookSurge Publishing. ⓒ Copyright 2004 by Richard W. Samson. All rights reserved.
