50 Billion Internet Devices by 2020Mankind has long been characterized as a user of tools. Although a few other animals share this trait, none come close to our relentless striving to design them, build them, and then implement them to improve our lives. A prime example is how we have created devices that harness electricity, performing hundreds, if not thousands, of functions for each of us daily.
Now, we are poised to enter a new era, in which the connectivity of billions of these electronic devices will transform how we interact with our world. Some predict there will be 50 billion by the year 2020, all networked to what is being called "The Internet of Things."1 Chetan Sharma, an electrical and biological engineer now working as a private mobile analyst, envisions that this connectivity will be "making everyday experiences much better and friction free."2
It may seem that the addition of 50 billion more devices will "over complicate" our already device-infused lives. But that will not be the case. Consider how, even though cars have gotten more sophisticated and certainly more complicated to repair, no more knowledge or experience is needed to drive them. The added technology works seamlessly in the background as we drive. So it will be with the 50 billion connected devices as we go about our daily lives. Picture these examples of whats to come:3
- While shopping in a store, a "shelf sign" will scan us and then display promotions that are deemed appropriate based on our height and clothing style.
- Well create a shopping list on our phone for a nearby retail store. At the store, the phone will communicate with the store network and prompt digital display signs to lead us through the store from item to item.
- Refrigerators will keep tabs of their contents and suggest items that need restocking or need to be discarded.
- Hospital patients will no longer need sensors attached to their bodies because the beds will be outfitted with so much instrumentation.
The beginnings of this pervasive, noninvasive connectivity can already be seen. Consider:
- Wireless downloads to Kindle e-readers are a good example of how this technology already does things for us, so we dont have to think about them.
- Add-on devices are available that enable our cars to send messages if the speed exceeds a specific range or the vehicle moves beyond a set geographical area ? potentially valuable information to the parent of a teenage driver.
- Micro-cameras the size and shape of a pill are being used to locate sources of illness and disease as they pass though the digestive tract, sending out thousands of images.
These examples and many others are just the tip of the iceberg. Essentially, anything that can be a source of information and generate data that can be used in some way will be connected and have a presence online. This will include everything from machines to roads to buildings ? thus the name: "The Internet of Things."
In his 2006 novel Rainbows End, Vernor Vinge envisioned a world where people interact with their surroundings, experiencing augmented reality through sensors in their clothes and display devices in contact lenses.
In the 2002 movie "Minority Report," as characters approach automated displays, they are greeted with personalized messages.
What was fiction in 2002 and 2006 is now quickly approaching reality.
These developments remind some people about another novel that explored the theme of pervasive technology: 1984, George Orwells 1948 nightmarish portrayal of how a repressive totalitarian state could use what we now call "connectivity" to keep its subjects under constant surveillance.
Although there is always a concern about how new technologies will be used, the power and promise of this coming wave will make it unstoppable. Even now, the elements to make it happen are converging. These include:
- The availability of mobile broadband
- Super-low-cost sensors
- The strong desire of companies to interact directly with consumers for promotion and selling
All of these will keep technological development moving forward ? and there are very few technological barriers inhibiting this move.
The availability of new Internet addresses wont even be an issue; because the recent emergence of the addressing scheme "Ipv6" provides so many addresses that every atom on Earth could have its own.
HP Labs is working on networked nanotechnology sensors that will detect vibration and movement, and others that will detect flavors and scents, enabling them to identify chemicals and biological species. These sensors, along with ones already on the market that detect pressure and light, will be inexpensively mass-produced.
Bandwidth requirements will be enormous, and this is a big concern. However, IBM is researching ways to make current bandwidth more effective at the device level. In addition, new types of interfaces that mesh with existing behavior will be needed, but without a doubt, there will be enterprising companies that will create them.
Significantly, two additional foundational technologies have evolved to the point where they are ready to support the blossoming of these new networked devices.
- First, wireless networking technology, along with communications protocols, already make the collection of data possible, virtually anytime, anywhere.
- Second, storage and computing power have reached a point where large scale number-crunching is possible at a very reasonable cost.
The potential applications are impossible to fully anticipate. All we can say for sure is that as the network of devices grows, it will create new and unimagined business opportunities and business models, while reducing costs and risks.
Based on this trend, please consider the following three forecasts:
First, in the coming decade, two broad categories of transformative applications will emerge from the network: (1) information plus analysis, and (2) automation plus control.
Information plus analysis applications will combine networked sensors with online databases and predictive analytics tools; they will track behavior and provide real-time information about situations. A simple but important use would be monitoring the condition of infrastructure, such as bridges and buildings. This technology will make possible better and timelier decision analytics. For example, the oil and gas industry will use extensive deployment of networked sensors to more precisely determine the location and extent of new resources. Meanwhile, the second category of application, automation plus control, will use data collected through the "Internet of Things" to feed instructions back through the network to modify processes in real time. The result will be an optimization of many of todays haphazard processes, with a related optimization of resource consumption. Tomorrows most successful companies will leverage the opportunities this creates.
Second, the deployment of networked devices will grow exponentially between now and 2020.
Today, only around 25 million electrical meters are connected to the "smart grid," but that will increase by 50 percent each year over the next decade. Devices used to track the location of trucks in the transportation industry will grow 27 percent yearly from the current 30.8 million devices. In healthcare, patient devices that are worn to monitor specific conditions will grow at 20 to 25 percent yearly. So, by 2020, connected devices will touch every aspect of our lives. Some people will even opt for networked devices that will become part of their bodies, such as a cell phone earpiece that will be surgically implanted in the ear.
Third, security will be the biggest issue well have to address in order to realize these benefits.
In spite of all the tremendous benefits the billions of connected devices will bring, people will still want assurances that their information is secure. The challenge in this fast-growing environment will be to address this issue now, so it can be part of the architecture, rather than playing catch-up as an afterthought. In particular, information about children, healthcare, and finances will need to be tightly protected.
References List :
1. McKinsey Quarterly, March 2010, "The Internet of Things," by Michael Chui, Markus Loffler, and Roger Roberts. ⓒ Copyright 2010 by McKinsey and Company. All rights reserved. http://www.mckinseyquarterly.com 2. ReadWriteWeb.com, March 23, 2011, "How 50 Billion Connected Devices Could Transform Brand Marketing & Everyday Life," by Marshall Kirkpatrick. ⓒ Copyright 2011 by ReadWriteWeb. All rights reserved. http://www.readwriteweb.com 3. Computerworld, November 9, 2011, "Today, the Internet -- Tomorrow, the Internet of Things?" by Lamont Wood. ⓒ Copyright 2011 by Computerworld, Inc. All rights reserved. http://www.computerworld.com
